Climate change threatens development, but with modern technology it can be prevented

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Kilimandjaro legendary snow top has been predicted to melt in the following decades. Birds start nesting earlier from year to year. The habitats of flora and fauna are stretching towards polar areas and up the mountain tops. In 2002 a whole nation, Tuvalu island, asked for a refugee abroad. Their home island is sinking, because climate change raises the sea level. New Zealand agreed to help Tuvalu when the time comes for them to leave their sinking islands.

Highest international expertise body on climate change is the IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A report published in 2001 estimated that the globe has warmed already 0,5 celsius grade and in this century it will warm 1,4-5,8 celsius grades more.  In most continents the warming will be higher than the average but in some places the climate may stay the same.

If the Gulf Stream turns away because of the climate change, which is possible, Finland and other Nordic countries will get colder.

The Climate Change is caused probably partly by reasons not related to human action, for example, the solar activities. Partly it is caused by the access of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, which is indeed a human made process. The greenhouse gases let through the sun radiation, but hold part of the warmth radiation,  which the warm ground sets back up.

The most important greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, CO2, next important ones are methane CH4 and nitrous oxide N20, rest are halogen combinations.

Carbon dioxide is produced mainly by burnig fuels, for example oil, coal, peat and natural gas. Most of the emissions are caused by burning coal and peat.

Climate change cannot be stopped totally at least during the next decades. In practise, the question is can we slower the change to a somewhat tolerable level.

If we want to limit the warming to two celsius grades, considering the current knowledge, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere should not exceed 450 ppm (parts per million). This amount is 1,5 times the preindustrial level.

To make this happen, greenhouse gas emissions has to be cut to about a third in this century. Climate change decreases the crops in the warm areas and worsens water shortages, damages forests, water areas and reefs.  Many tropical diseases, like malaria, spread to new areas. Storms, floods and aridness will come more common.

Effects of climate change will harm, at least at first phases, most of all Africa, which is already the poorest continent. Africa produces only 2 % of the emissions causing climate change.

Warming will cut the crops especially in tropical and subtropical regions, where there is many densely populated countries. Population will continue to grow and global food demand will double in the next 30-40 years.

On the other hand, crops in Africa and Latin America will diminish 30 % because of the climate change. Also the number of thristy will rise. Now a fifth, 1,3 milliard people, lives without clean drinking water.

By the year 2025 amount of countries suffering from water shortage is esitmated to double in consequence of population growth and economic development. As many as 2 milliard people may have to suffer from water shortage.

Thirst, hunger and environmental catastrophes can make hundreds of millions people environmental refugees. Malaria is predicted to spread to African highlands and the southern parts of Europe and United States. Now majority of people live in areas where malaria is not thriving. Climate change may turn the situation upside down.

Also dengue fever and bilhartsia are predicted to spread into new areas. The sea level is raised by thermal expansion and melting of the continental glacier. One of the most vulnerable area is Florida. IPCC expects the sea level to rise 8-88 cm by the end of this century.

Now three people in four lives under 60 kilometers from the sea shore. Most of the biggest cities are situated by the sea. One third of the fields is just under 5 meter higher  than the sea level. The rising of one meter could cause serious consequences because of saltification of ground water.

The rise of sea level by 50 cm would drive away one sixth of Egyptians and expose 92 million people around the world to hurricanes. If sea level rises 1 meter, one sixth of Bangladesh and even four fifths of Marshall Islands will get under water. 

If the globe will warm some hundreds of years, thermal expansion of the sea will continue thousand years and the melting of glaciers will continue even longer.

If the Glacier of Greenland would melt, sea level would rise about 7 meter. The same amount sea level rise might be caused also if the temperature rises 1,5 celsius grades. Also storms and hurricanes will become more commen, because tropical storms can form only if the sea surface is 26 celsius grades or more.

World Health Organisation WHO estimates that climate change already kills 160 000 people  yearly.  Global warming increases and lenghtens intolerable heat waves in the countries with warm climate. Heat is enough to kill and make sick people who cannot afford air conditioning in their homes or working places.

When the climate gets warmer, water based diseases such as cholera will thrive. Fertility of the land will weaken and this will increase hunger and malnutrition based diseases.

Many great rives start at mountain glaciers. Indus, Ganges, Mekong, Yangtse start at Himalaja, where the glaciers are predicted to melt during the next hundred years. If they melt, the rivers will dry up for some part of the year, which would affect dramatically agriculture in India, Cjina and South Asia.

Climate change diminishes biodiversity. When the habitat moves away, also the animals have to be able to move. But not all the species can move that quickly, and most of all, the eco systems cannot move. Primeral forest cannot pack its suitcase and move some hundred kilometers to the north.

The weakening of biodiversity is not so clearly apparent for the longevity of many plants. Climate change may kill even a fourth of the species that live on the ground by the year 2050.

Many reefs will get paler which tells that they are damaged. Coral reefs are the rain forests of the oceans - really diverse and rich eco systems. When these eco systems disappear we may lose medicines and other valuable resources even before they are discovered. For example commenly used HIV medicine is from the Caribbean coral reefs.

The amount of warming is - of course - dependent on how quickly we manage to stop the rise of carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere. The worst scenary is if and when the climate change gets out of our hands and starts accelerate itself. If the warming will dry Amazon rain forests and they start to turn into grassland or deserts, huge amounts of carbon dioxide will be released.

Warming may resolve carbon dioxide that is storaged in oceans or methane that is under permafrost.

Kyoto Protocol is just a start

Three international treaties showcased at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil -- a conference popularly known as the "Rio Earth Summit." The Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), and the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).

Quite soon UNFCCC was found too loose. In 1997 in Kyoto. Japan, a treaty was made that set limits to emissions of the developed countries during the years 2008-2012.

Kyoto protocol became binding when it had been ratified by 55 countries that prepresent 55 % of the developed countries' emissions in the year 1990. The year 2004 Russia finally joined in and finally the Protocol come into force.

The finnish parliament ratified the Kyoto Protocol in the spring 2002. Already in Rio it was agreed that the first world countries will start the emission cuts, beceuse they have caused the climate change experienced so far. By the turn of the millennium two thirds of the emissions were produced in developed countries, although they have only one fourth of the population. Average european produces same emissions as 5 chineses or 10 indians.

Emissions per capita in Finland, 14 tonnes of carbon dioxide yearly, are over the EU average. The Kyoto Protocol will decrease emissions in the developed countries only 5,2 % if it is carried out as agreed. This will not be enough to limit the climate change.

Kyoto is a modest but necesssary first step to sustainable emission levels. The quicker we limit the emissions, the more choices we leave to following generations and decades.

Sooner or later also the developing countries have to accept emission limits. With the current speed, it takes 10-20 years until the developing countries produce more emissions than developed countries.

Climate change cannot be halted only by the actions of the developed countries. But to get the developing countries to accept emission  targets, the developed countries have to keep their promises and fullfill the Kyoto agreements.

The developed countries are also in an inportant position to develop new energy technology so that emission targets will become technically and economically possible also in the developing countries.

In the next rounds of climate policy negotiations it will be discussed whether it is possible to form a system that sets emission quotas for all countries.

Simple and logical solution would be a model that is based on sustainability and  global equality per capita. In this system, countries would get emission quotas on relation to their population. This idea of climate equity has been developed in the third world countries, especially in India. We will see, if it is ever possible to agree on a model like this.

CO2 CONTRACTION AND CONVERGENCE (GCI) (click to enlarge)

Development of new technology is the key question

Fossil fuels, such as coal and oil are still being burned, because it is often the cheapest option. When the energy solutions which do not cause carbon dioxide emissions have become cheaper, most of the problems are solved.

At this point there is the question: Why is nuclear power not good? After all it does not cause CO2 emissions. 

Well, first of all, urane resources are limited and will not be enough to solve the problem in the long run. If fossil fuels would be replaced by nuclear power, the now known urane resources would be enough for only 3,5 years. And we are not thinking that nuclear power would be a wise energy solution in all the developing countries as well? Nuclear power plant accidents have happened in Soviet Union, United States and Japan. How could it be safe in more unstable conditions?

Nuclear power projects in Finland and other "reliable" first world countries will probably encourage for example Pakistan and other countries to build more nuclear power units, that can increase the risk of the spreading of nuclear weapons.

In Russia the Finland's decision has been used as an argument to build more nuclear power units. At this point the only realistic solution suitable to all the countries to stop the climate change seems to be renewable energy.

Renewable energy is the energy we get from the sun, wind, bio mass, waves and tides. Geothermic energy is derived from volcanic soil. The amount of solar energy that streams in to the atmosphere is 10 0000 times larger than the total technical use of energy by humankind.

The problem is the cost of the technical devices that are used to convert the energy to a mode that is usable. Bio mass is in many cases the most advantageous energy solution already. The most important energy mode in Finland is still oil, of which majority is consumed in traffic.

Wood is the second important energy source. This is because forest industry uses lots of waste wood and wood based process waste. Nuclear power is only in the third position. But it is the most important source in electricity production. Wind energy experts predict that in 10 years the wind mills will produce energy more cheaper than coal or nuclear power units.

Finland has many suitable areas for wind power production, especially in the shallow sea areas, where the natural surroundings do not set tight limits for the use of wind energy. Unfortunately Finland produces least wind power in EU if Luxembourg is not taken into account. By the end of the year 2003 Finland had wind power capacity for only 51 megawatts.

It depends on the development speed of  technology, when will the renewables become the cheapest energy source available.

In EU emissions trade is the main tool of cutting emissions. The factories and power units get an emission quota which can be exceeded only by buying more quota from the market. This will set emissios a market price, that will encourage energy saving solutions and other kind of ways to cut emissions.

The goal is to speed up development of new clean energy. We have seen before breakthroughs of new technology, for example in computing or mobile technology. If we imagine the future even only 20 or 30 years ahead of us, we will probably predict wrong.

From the space earth is small and delicate planet which is dominated by nature: clouds, oceans, forests and the land. The diameter of globe is 12 700 kilometers. Thickness of air is even as low as at 50 kilometers 1/1000 of the level on the ground. There is not much room for human waste in the atmosphere. We live on a space ship and we should act accordingly.

Sources:

Protecting Our Planet. Securing Our Future. United Nations Environment Pro-gramme, U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, The World Bank 1998

UNEP Annual Report 2001, United Nations Environment Programme

Harri Lammi & Oras Tynkkynen: The Whole Climate. Climate equity and its implica-tions for the North. Friends of the Earth Finland 2001.

Robert T. Watson: Climate Change 2001, presentation at COP-6bis July 19, 2001